Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, allowing you to stay informed and profit from your knowledge by betting on future events across various topics. Studies show prediction markets are often more accurate than pundits because they combine news, polls, and expert opinions into a single value that represents the market’s view of an event’s odds. Our markets reflect accurate, unbiased, and real-time probabilities for the events that matter most to you. Markets seek truth.

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Quick Overview

  • On Polymarket, you can buy and sell shares representing future event outcomes (i.e. “Will TikTok be banned in the U.S. this year?”)
  • Shares in event outcomes are always priced between 0.00 and 1.00 USDC, and every pair of event outcomes (i.e. each pair of “YES” + “NO” shares) is fully collateralized by $1.00 USDC.
  • Shares are created when opposing sides come to an agreement on odds, such that the sum of what each side is willing to pay is equal to $1.00.
  • The shares representing the correct, final outcome are paid out $1.00 USDC each upon market resolution.
  • Unlike sportsbooks, you are not betting against “the house” – the counterparty to each trade is another Polymarket user. As such:
    • Shares can be sold before the event outcome is known_ (i.e. to lock in profits or cut losses)
    • There is no “house” to ban you for winning too much.

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Understanding Prices

Prices = Probabilities. Prices (odds) on Polymarket represent the current probability of an event occurring. For example, in a market predicting whether the Miami Heat will win the 2025 NBA Finals, if YES shares are trading at 18 cents, it indicates a 18% chance of Miami winning. These odds are determined by what price other Polymarket users are currently willing to buy & sell those shares at. Just how stock exchanges don’t “set” the prices of stocks, Polymarket does not set prices / odds - they’re a function of supply & demand. Learn more >

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Making money on markets

In the example above, if you believe Miami’s chances of winning are higher than 18%, you would buy “Yes” shares at 18 cents each. If Miami wins, each “Yes” share would be worth $1, resulting in an 82-cent profit per share. Conversely, any trader who owned “No” shares would see their investment become worthless once the game is over. Since it’s a market, you’re not locked into your trade. You can sell your shares at any time at the current market price. As the news changes, the supply and demand for shares fluctuates, causing the share price to reflect the new odds for the event.

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How accurate are Polymarket odds?

Research shows prediction markets are often more accurate than experts, polls, and pundits. Traders aggregate news, polls, and expert opinions, making informed trades. Their economic incentives ensure market prices adjust to reflect true odds as more knowledgeable participants join. This makes prediction markets the best source of real-time event probabilities. People use Polymarket for the most accurate odds, gaining the ability to make informed decisions about the future. If you’re an expert on a certain topic, Polymarket is your opportunity to profit from trading based on your knowledge, while improving the market’s accuracy.